Book quiz
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts Quiz
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the FactsAnnie DukeIn the Super Bowl, a coach calls a pass, the ball is intercepted, and the whole country calls the decision stupid. Former professional poker player Annie Duke shows why that verdict is too quick. Her book is about separating the quality of a decision from luck, honestly doubting your own beliefs, and learning from…
Question 1 of 5
How does Duke judge Carroll's pass call in the final seconds of the final?
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Right answer: A reasonable decision with an unlucky outcome
Duke separates the decision from the outcome: the decision was sound, the result was just bad luck.
Question 2 of 5
According to Duke, why is life more like poker than chess?
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Right answer: In poker some of the cards are hidden
In chess everything is on the board, but in poker some cards are hidden, and a strong player can lose a hand. Life works the same way.
Question 3 of 5
According to research cited in the book, what does intelligence do with bias?
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Right answer: Helps you defend it
Research in the book shows something uncomfortable: being smart doesn't help you drop a bias, it helps you defend it.
Question 4 of 5
Your project succeeded, while a coworker's similar one failed. How, per Duke, do you judge your success honestly?
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Right answer: Imagine the same outcome happened to someone else
We claim our wins as our own and write off others' wins as luck. Imagining your outcome as someone else's makes it easier to separate luck from skill.
Question 5 of 5
You're off to view apartments and worry about getting carried away. What would Duke suggest?
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Right answer: Set yourself a maximum price in advance
Decisions made in the heat of the moment are worse, so Duke advises deciding ahead with a cool head. It's a Ulysses contract: the limit is set before the trip.
Want all of the book's key ideas? Read or listen to its retelling in Livria.